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Climate change has marked effects on global weather patterns and oceanic systems, impacting animal behaviour and fitness in potentially profound ways. Despite this, we lack detailed information about species’ responses to climatic variation. Using an 11-year tracking dataset of over 300 individual birds, we explore the consequences of variation in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for individual behaviour and fitness in wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans breeding in the Southern Indian Ocean. Our results reveal distinct responses between males and females to climatic variation that align with the impacts of each climatic index on the distinct foraging ranges of each sex. In positive SAM phases, linked to poorer foraging conditions in female ranges and better conditions in male ranges, females exhibited behaviour consistent with reduced foraging success: that is, fewer prey capture attempts, and more movement between feeding patches. Males, on the other hand, showed no behavioural change. During positive SOI phases, associated with good foraging conditions in both male and female foraging ranges, both sexes showed evidence of more successful foraging, with birds engaging in more search behaviour, and taking shorter trips with fewer prey capture attempts, together indicating increased food intake per unit time. We found limited evidence for a role of individual variation, as measured through differences in personality, suggesting that plastic responses to climate are sufficiently important so as to obscure inter-individual variation. Supporting this was the finding that individual breeding success was unaffected by climatic variation, suggesting that plastic foraging behaviour allows albatrosses to mitigate climate impacts and maintain reproductive output. 

Vagrancy is critical in facilitating range expansion and colonization through exploration and occupation of potentially suitable habitat. Uncovering origins of vagrants will help us better understand not only species-specific vagrant movements, but how the dynamics of a naturally growing population influence vagrancy, and potentially lead to range expansion. Under the premise that occurrence of vagrants is linked to increasing population growth in the core of the breeding range, we assessed the utility of breeding population survey data to predict source populations of vagrants. Lesser Black-backed Gulls (LBBG) ( Larus fuscus ) served as our focal species due to their dramatic and well-documented history of vagrancy to North America in the last 30 years. We related annual occurrence of vagrants to indices of breeding population size and growth rate of breeding populations. We propose that the fastest growing population is the most likely source of recent vagrants to North America. Our study shows that it is possible to predict potential source populations of vagrants with breeding population data, but breeding surveys require increased standardization across years to improve models. For the Lesser Black-backed Gull, Iceland’s breeding population likely influenced vagrancy during the early years of colonization, but the major increase in vagrants occurred during a period of growth of Greenland’s population, suggesting that Greenland is the source population of the most recent pulse of vagrant LBBG to North America.